Multi-Model Ensemble Projection of Precipitation Changes over China under Global Warming of 1.5 and 2°C with Consideration of Model Performance and Independence

A weighting scheme jointly considering model performance and independence (PI-based scheme) is employed to deal with multi-model ensemble prediction of precipitation over China from 17 global climate models. Four metrics on mean extremes are used evaluate the independence. The PI-based also compared a rank-based simple arithmetic (AM) scheme. It shown that achieves notable improvements in western China, biases decreasing for all parameters. However, small almost insignificant eastern China. After calibration validation, future projection under 1.5 2°C warming targets (above preindustrial level). There general tendency wetness most regions especially terms extreme precipitation. PI shows larger inhomogeneity spatial distribution. For total PRCPTOT (95th percentile R95P), land fraction change than 10% (20%) 22.8% (53.4%) PI, while 13.3% (36.8%) AM, warming. Most noticeable increase exists central east parts